UCLA and Missouri Lead College Football’s Midseason Surprises
The first half of the 2025 regular season has produced a clear set of college football surprise teams, and no program has rewritten expectations more dramatically than UCLA. The Bruins are 6-0 after beating Oregon, a run that has turned a team with nine losses in 2025 into a legitimate playoff contender. Bob Chesney has transformed the program in his first season, but the path ahead now hinges on how UCLA manages without its starting quarterback.
UCLA's Playoff Push Faces a Quarterback Test
Nico Iamaleava is expected to miss the rest of the year with a knee injury, a significant blow for a team that had been rolling. Ty Dieffenbach, a Cal Poly transfer, is slated to start against Wisconsin. The Bruins have a relatively easy finish to the regular season, with games against Wisconsin, Michigan State, Nevada, Minnesota, Illinois, Michigan and USC. That schedule gives UCLA room to absorb the loss, but the playoff hopes depend on how well Dieffenbach settles in.
Missouri Breaks Through Against Top-10 Competition
Missouri sits at 5-1 after beating Florida, a win that snapped a nine-game losing streak against top-10 opponents. The Tigers followed that with a win over Texas A&M. The remaining schedule is unforgiving: Mississippi, Texas, Georgia and Kentucky. Missouri has the look of a playoff contender, but the SEC slate will test whether the Tigers can sustain their midseason form.
Other Power Four Programs Exceeding Expectations
Kentucky, under Will Stein, has matched last year’s win total at 5-1 after upsetting LSU in overtime. A playoff berth is unlikely, but eight or nine wins are within reach. Mississippi State is 4-1, though a lopsided loss to Alabama exposed defensive issues that could limit the Bulldogs. Wake Forest coach Jake Dickert won nine games in his debut, and the Demon Deacons are 5-1 with Gio Lopez, a North Carolina transfer, rebuilt into an all-conference contender. Wake Forest could reach the ACC championship game.
Nebraska is 5-1, but its start has been discounted because of a weak schedule, and the Cornhuskers lost 20-17 to Indiana. Wisconsin has won four in a row to reach 4-1, with UCLA, USC and Iowa next on the schedule. Those games will show whether the Badgers are a real Big Ten threat or just a product of a soft stretch.
Group of Six Teams Making Noise
Memphis is 5-1 under Charles Huff and has a shot at the American crown, with the schedule missing UTSA, North Texas and FAU. FAU is 4-1, its best start since 2020, and went 3-1 in non-conference play for the first time. Coach Zach Kittley has emerged as a candidate for bigger jobs. New Mexico is 4-1 under Jason Eck, who is 13-5 in his year-plus in Albuquerque, and the Lobos lost just 14-6 to Oklahoma. They are in the driver’s seat for the Mountain West.
Oregon State is 4-2 with one of the nation’s most productive offenses. The Beavers rank fifth in yards per game (522.3), eighth in yards per play (7.3) and tenth in scoring (41.8). Jason Legree, a three-star recruit, leads the country in receiving yards (932) and touchdowns (12) under coach Jamarcus Shephard. James Madison is 6-0 under Billy Napier, who returned to the Sun Belt, though the Dukes have played close games against Liberty and Georgia Southern. They remain the class of the Sun Belt and a threat to return to the playoff conversation.
What to Watch in the Second Half
UCLA’s playoff chances rest on Dieffenbach and a manageable schedule. Missouri must survive a brutal SEC stretch. Wake Forest could crash the ACC title game, while Memphis, New Mexico and James Madison control their Group of Six destinies. The second half will reveal which surprises are genuine contenders and which were merely fast starts.
1 comment